# PyMCon2020 **URL:** https://discourse.pymc.io/c/events/2020talks/15.md [Latest](https://discourse.pymc.io/latest.md) · [Categories](https://discourse.pymc.io/categories.md) · [Tags](https://discourse.pymc.io/tags.md) --- ## [Posterior Predictive Sampling in PyMC3 by Luciano Paz](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/posterior-predictive-sampling-in-pymc3-by-luciano-paz/6028)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 2\ **Last updated:** [June 6, 2024, 6:35am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/posterior-predictive-sampling-in-pymc3-by-luciano-paz/6028 "2024-06-06T06:35:07Z")
Talk Abstract PyMC3 is great for inferring parameter values in a model given some observations, but sometimes we also want to generate random samples from the model as predictions given what we already inferred from the … --- ## [A Bayesian Approach to Media Mix Modeling by Michael Johns & Zhenyu Wang](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/a-bayesian-approach-to-media-mix-modeling-by-michael-johns-zhenyu-wang/6024)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 70\ **Last updated:** [April 6, 2023, 12:32pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/a-bayesian-approach-to-media-mix-modeling-by-michael-johns-zhenyu-wang/6024 "2023-04-06T12:32:44Z")
Talk Abstract This talk describes how we built a Bayesian Media Mix Model of new customer acquisition using PyMC3. We will explain the statistical structure of the model in detail, with special attention to nonlinear fun… --- ## [Hierarchical Time Series With Prophet and PyMC3 by Matthijs Brouns](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/hierarchical-time-series-with-prophet-and-pymc3-by-matthijs-brouns/5988)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 13\ **Last updated:** [January 17, 2023, 10:47am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/hierarchical-time-series-with-prophet-and-pymc3-by-matthijs-brouns/5988 "2023-01-17T10:47:52Z")
Talk Abstract When doing time-series modelling, you often end up in a situation where you want to make long-term predictions for multiple, related, time-series. In this talk, we’ll build an hierarchical version of Facebo… --- ## [Using Hierarchical Multinomial Regression to Predict Elections in Paris at the District-Level by Alex Andorra](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/using-hierarchical-multinomial-regression-to-predict-elections-in-paris-at-the-district-level-by-alex-andorra/6057)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 3\ **Last updated:** [December 5, 2022, 3:27pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/using-hierarchical-multinomial-regression-to-predict-elections-in-paris-at-the-district-level-by-alex-andorra/6057 "2022-12-05T15:27:42Z")
Talk Abstract Predicting elections in Paris with hierarchical multinomial regression. Do you want to use multinomial/softmax regression but don’t know how to code that up? Well (at once), there is a tutorial about this!… --- ## [Point72 is stoked to be sponsoring PyMCon 2020 - Check out our opportunities!](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/point72-is-stoked-to-be-sponsoring-pymcon-2020-check-out-our-opportunities/6081)
**Author:** [@Rob\_Stevenson](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/Rob_Stevenson)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [October 23, 2020, 10:59pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/point72-is-stoked-to-be-sponsoring-pymcon-2020-check-out-our-opportunities/6081 "2020-10-23T22:59:20Z")
Point72 Asset Management is a global firm led by Steven Cohen that invests in multiple asset classes and strategies worldwide. Resting on more than a quarter-century of investing experience, we seek to be the industry’s … --- ## [PyMC Labs is bringing Bayes to business (and sponsoring PyMCon)](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymc-labs-is-bringing-bayes-to-business-and-sponsoring-pymcon/6152)
**Author:** [@RavinKumar](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/RavinKumar)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [October 31, 2020, 2:33am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymc-labs-is-bringing-bayes-to-business-and-sponsoring-pymcon/6152 "2020-10-31T02:33:02Z")
PyMC Labs is a team of applied statistics that are are the inventors of PyMC3, the leading platform for statistical data science. We have launched a consultancy to turn our expertise into your advantage. Our decades of e… --- ## [The Bayesian Workflow: Building a COVID-19 Model by Thomas Wiecki](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/the-bayesian-workflow-building-a-covid-19-model-by-thomas-wiecki/6017)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 13\ **Last updated:** [December 5, 2021, 8:07am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/the-bayesian-workflow-building-a-covid-19-model-by-thomas-wiecki/6017 "2021-12-05T08:07:05Z")
Talk Abstract In this tutorial we will build a COVID-19 model from scratch. Thomas Wiecki Twitter @twiecki GitHub twiecki Talk Part 1 Part 2 Thomas Wiecki Thomas is the founder… --- ## [Using Hierarchical Models in Instrumental Variable Analysis for Advertising Effectiveness by Ruben Mak](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/using-hierarchical-models-in-instrumental-variable-analysis-for-advertising-effectiveness-by-ruben-mak/6021)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 5\ **Last updated:** [July 23, 2021, 3:24pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/using-hierarchical-models-in-instrumental-variable-analysis-for-advertising-effectiveness-by-ruben-mak/6021 "2021-07-23T15:24:45Z")
Talk Abstract Due to unobserved confounders, users are often exposed to too many repetitive ads. We will show how we use instrumental variable analysis to prove this is ineffective for advertisers. The focus of the talk … --- ## [Priors of Great Potential - How You Can Add Fairness Constraints to Models Using Priors by Vincent D. Warmerdam & Matthijs Brouns](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/priors-of-great-potential-how-you-can-add-fairness-constraints-to-models-using-priors-by-vincent-d-warmerdam-matthijs-brouns/5987)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 8\ **Last updated:** [June 25, 2021, 8:49am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/priors-of-great-potential-how-you-can-add-fairness-constraints-to-models-using-priors-by-vincent-d-warmerdam-matthijs-brouns/5987 "2021-06-25T08:49:48Z")
Vincent D. Warmerdam Twitter @fishnets88 GitHub koaning Personal website Matthijs Brouns Twitter @MatthijsBrs GitHub mbrouns Personal website Talk Vincent D. Warmerdam Vincent likes to spen… --- ## [Demystifying Variational Inference by Sayam Kumar](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/demystifying-variational-inference-by-sayam-kumar/6022)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 3\ **Last updated:** [January 15, 2021, 1:01pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/demystifying-variational-inference-by-sayam-kumar/6022 "2021-01-15T13:01:59Z")
Talk Abstract What will you do if MCMC is taking too long to sample? Also what if the dataset is huge? Is there any other cost-effective method for finding the posterior that can save us and potentially produce similar r… --- ## [My Journey in Learning and Relearning Bayesian Statistics by Ali Akbar Septiandri](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/my-journey-in-learning-and-relearning-bayesian-statistics-by-ali-akbar-septiandri/5984)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 2\ **Last updated:** [November 4, 2020, 10:33am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/my-journey-in-learning-and-relearning-bayesian-statistics-by-ali-akbar-septiandri/5984 "2020-11-04T10:33:36Z")
Talk Abstract My journey in learning (and relearning) Bayesian methods as a computer scientist Ali Akbar Septiandri Twitter @aliakbars Talk Ali Akbar Septiandri A data scientist and a lect… --- ## [Learning Bayesian Statistics With Pokemon GO by Tushar Chandra](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/learning-bayesian-statistics-with-pokemon-go-by-tushar-chandra/6020)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 7\ **Last updated:** [November 3, 2020, 2:36pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/learning-bayesian-statistics-with-pokemon-go-by-tushar-chandra/6020 "2020-11-03T14:36:24Z")
Talk Abstract In the mobile game Pokemon GO, players can rarely encounter “shiny” Pokemon. The exact appearance rates are unknown. But by using Bayesian inference and PyMC3, we can model different species’ shiny rates. I… --- ## [Keynote: These are a few of my favorite inference diagnostics by Aki Vehtari](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/keynote-these-are-a-few-of-my-favorite-inference-diagnostics-by-aki-vehtari/6180)
**Author:** [@RavinKumar](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/RavinKumar)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [November 1, 2020, 4:22pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/keynote-these-are-a-few-of-my-favorite-inference-diagnostics-by-aki-vehtari/6180 "2020-11-01T16:22:29Z")
Talk Abstract I discuss some old and some more recent inference diagnostics methods for Markov chain Monte Carlo, importance sampling, and variational inference. When the convergence fails, I simply remember my favorite … --- ## [A Novel Bayesian Model to Fit Spectrophotometric Data of Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescopes by Mo Akhshik](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/a-novel-bayesian-model-to-fit-spectrophotometric-data-of-hubble-and-spitzer-space-telescopes-by-mo-akhshik/6026)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 5\ **Last updated:** [November 1, 2020, 4:50pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/a-novel-bayesian-model-to-fit-spectrophotometric-data-of-hubble-and-spitzer-space-telescopes-by-mo-akhshik/6026 "2020-11-01T16:50:14Z")
Talk Abstract Understanding how the most massive galaxies rapidly formed and quenched when Universe was only ~3 billion years old is one of the major challenges of extragalactic astronomy. In this talk, I will discuss ho… --- ## [The Why and How of One Domain-Specific PyMC3 Extension by Dan Foreman-Mackey](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/the-why-and-how-of-one-domain-specific-pymc3-extension-by-dan-foreman-mackey/5983)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 5\ **Last updated:** [November 1, 2020, 4:45pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/the-why-and-how-of-one-domain-specific-pymc3-extension-by-dan-foreman-mackey/5983 "2020-11-01T16:45:26Z")
Talk Abstract In this talk I will describe some of the unique challenges encountered in probabilistic modeling for astrophysics and some approaches taken to overcome these obstacles. In particular, I will discuss the mot… --- ## [Microbial Cell Counting in a Noisy Environment by Cameron Davidson-Pilon](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/microbial-cell-counting-in-a-noisy-environment-by-cameron-davidson-pilon/5977)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 7\ **Last updated:** [November 1, 2020, 4:38pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/microbial-cell-counting-in-a-noisy-environment-by-cameron-davidson-pilon/5977 "2020-11-01T16:38:06Z")
Talk Abstract In this LBAM, we’ll introduce the microbiological task of cell counting and understand all the potential sources of error involved. We’ll model each source of error probabilistically, introduce priors, and … --- ## [Keynote: Inferring the spread of SARS-CoV-2 --- and measures to mitigate it by Viola Priesemann](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/keynote-inferring-the-spread-of-sars-cov-2-and-measures-to-mitigate-it-by-viola-priesemann/6179)
**Author:** [@RavinKumar](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/RavinKumar)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [November 1, 2020, 4:20pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/keynote-inferring-the-spread-of-sars-cov-2-and-measures-to-mitigate-it-by-viola-priesemann/6179 "2020-11-01T16:20:03Z")
Talk Abstract With the second waves of COVID-19 unfolding in most European countries, it is worth to look back at the first wave and especially the past summer, where case numbers were case numbers stayed low. I will pre… --- ## [Keynote: PyMC: Past, Present, and Future by Chris Fonnesbeck](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/keynote-pymc-past-present-and-future-by-chris-fonnesbeck/6178)
**Author:** [@RavinKumar](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/RavinKumar)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [November 1, 2020, 4:17pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/keynote-pymc-past-present-and-future-by-chris-fonnesbeck/6178 "2020-11-01T16:17:03Z")
Talk Abstract To kick off PyMCON 2020, I will provide some of the back-story of the PyMC project: where we’ve been, where we are, and where we might go Chris Fonnesbeck Twitter @fonnesbeck GitHub fonnesbeck … --- ## [What Is Probability? A Philosophical Question With Practical Implications for Bayesians by Max Sklar](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/what-is-probability-a-philosophical-question-with-practical-implications-for-bayesians-by-max-sklar/5986)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 2\ **Last updated:** [November 1, 2020, 2:51am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/what-is-probability-a-philosophical-question-with-practical-implications-for-bayesians-by-max-sklar/5986 "2020-11-01T02:51:55Z")
Talk Abstract This talk will familiarize you with the philosophical questions of probability and the implications when it comes to justifying and explaining Bayesian models. Max Sklar Twitter @maxsklar GitHu… --- ## [Have you enjoyed PyMCon? Our PyMCon survey already accepts responses!](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/have-you-enjoyed-pymcon-our-pymcon-survey-already-accepts-responses/6169)
**Author:** [@OriolAbril](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/OriolAbril)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [October 31, 2020, 8:03pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/have-you-enjoyed-pymcon-our-pymcon-survey-already-accepts-responses/6169 "2020-10-31T20:03:56Z")
Thanks everyone for coming to the first ever PyMCon! We have had many activities happen during this last week since we posted the talks. We hope everyone had an enriching experience. As you will have seen on each of th… --- ## [Sequential Monte Carlo: Introduction and Diagnostics by Pedro German Ramirez & Osvaldo Martin](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/sequential-monte-carlo-introduction-and-diagnostics-by-pedro-german-ramirez-osvaldo-martin/6019)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 3\ **Last updated:** [October 31, 2020, 6:12pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/sequential-monte-carlo-introduction-and-diagnostics-by-pedro-german-ramirez-osvaldo-martin/6019 "2020-10-31T18:12:01Z")
Talk Abstract In this talk we will provide a brief introduction to Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods and provide a guide to diagnose posterior samples computed using SMC. Pedro German Ramirez GitHub pger… --- ## [An Alcohol? What Are the Chances! Knowledge-Based and Probabilistic Models in Chemistry Using PyMC3 by Hessam Mehr & Dario Caramelli](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/an-alcohol-what-are-the-chances-knowledge-based-and-probabilistic-models-in-chemistry-using-pymc3-by-hessam-mehr-dario-caramelli/6018)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 2\ **Last updated:** [October 31, 2020, 6:05pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/an-alcohol-what-are-the-chances-knowledge-based-and-probabilistic-models-in-chemistry-using-pymc3-by-hessam-mehr-dario-caramelli/6018 "2020-10-31T18:05:37Z")
Talk Abstract We have used PyMC3 to formulate an explainable probabilistic model of chemical reactivity. This probabilistic model combines the intuitive concepts of high school chemistry with the computer’s ability to st… --- ## [Partial Missing Multivariate Observation and What to Do With Them by Junpeng Lao](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/partial-missing-multivariate-observation-and-what-to-do-with-them-by-junpeng-lao/6050)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 4\ **Last updated:** [October 31, 2020, 3:07pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/partial-missing-multivariate-observation-and-what-to-do-with-them-by-junpeng-lao/6050 "2020-10-31T15:07:13Z")
Talk Abstract Missing value is pretty common in any real world data set. While PyMC3 provides convenient automatic imputation, how do we verify it works, especially dealing with multivariate observation with partially mi… --- ## [The MLDA Multilevel Sampler in PyMC3 by Tim Dodwell, Mikkel Lykkegaard, and Grigorios Mingas](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/the-mlda-multilevel-sampler-in-pymc3-by-tim-dodwell-mikkel-lykkegaard-and-grigorios-mingas/5982)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 4\ **Last updated:** [October 31, 2020, 1:14pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/the-mlda-multilevel-sampler-in-pymc3-by-tim-dodwell-mikkel-lykkegaard-and-grigorios-mingas/5982 "2020-10-31T13:14:19Z")
Talk Abstract This presentation will give you the chance to know more about PyMC3’s new multilevel MCMC sampler, MLDA, and help you use it in practice. MLDA exploits multilevel model hierarchies to improve sampling effic… --- ## [Automatic Transformation of Bayesian Probabilistic Models Into Interactive Visualizations by Evdoxia Taka](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/automatic-transformation-of-bayesian-probabilistic-models-into-interactive-visualizations-by-evdoxia-taka/6015)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 2\ **Last updated:** [October 31, 2020, 12:11pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/automatic-transformation-of-bayesian-probabilistic-models-into-interactive-visualizations-by-evdoxia-taka/6015 "2020-10-31T12:11:59Z")
Talk Abstract Automatic transformation of Bayesian probabilistic models into interactive visualisations: models expressed in a probabilistic programming language are translated automatically into interactive multiverse d… --- ## [Including Partial Differential Equations in Your PyMC3 Model by Ivan Yashchuk](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/including-partial-differential-equations-in-your-pymc3-model-by-ivan-yashchuk/6016)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 3\ **Last updated:** [October 31, 2020, 10:32am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/including-partial-differential-equations-in-your-pymc3-model-by-ivan-yashchuk/6016 "2020-10-31T10:32:40Z")
Talk Abstract This tutorial will demonstrate use of PyMC3 for PDE-based inverse problems. We will infer parameters of a simple continuum mechanics model but the demonstrated tools can be readily applied to other complex … --- ## [Building an ordered logistic regression model for toxicity prediction by Elizaveta Semenova](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/building-an-ordered-logistic-regression-model-for-toxicity-prediction-by-elizaveta-semenova/5953)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 1\ **Last updated:** [October 31, 2020, 8:14am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/building-an-ordered-logistic-regression-model-for-toxicity-prediction-by-elizaveta-semenova/5953 "2020-10-31T08:14:32Z")
Let’s Build a Model Abstract We will build a simple but useful ordered logistic regression model to predict severity of drug-induced liver injury (DILI) from in vitro data and physicochemical properties of compounds. … --- ## [Tidelift is proud to sponsor PyMCon - sustaining PyMC had never been easier!](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/tidelift-is-proud-to-sponsor-pymcon-sustaining-pymc-had-never-been-easier/6147)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [October 30, 2020, 6:18pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/tidelift-is-proud-to-sponsor-pymcon-sustaining-pymc-had-never-been-easier/6147 "2020-10-30T18:18:10Z")
PyMC is partnering with Tidelift and thousands of other open source projects to deliver enterprise-level maintenance and assurances as part of the Tidelift Subscription. Listen to our community speak about what makes Py… --- ## [Estimating the Causal Network of Developmental Neurotoxicants Using PyMC3 by Nicoleta Spînu](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/estimating-the-causal-network-of-developmental-neurotoxicants-using-pymc3-by-nicoleta-spinu/6027)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 3\ **Last updated:** [October 30, 2020, 4:47pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/estimating-the-causal-network-of-developmental-neurotoxicants-using-pymc3-by-nicoleta-spinu/6027 "2020-10-30T16:47:04Z")
Talk Abstract There is a vital need for alternative methods to animal testing to assess compounds for their potency of inducing developmental neurotoxicity such as learning disabilities in children. However, data are oft… --- ## [Studying Glycan 3D Structures With PyMC3 and ArviZ by Agustina Arroyuelo](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/studying-glycan-3d-structures-with-pymc3-and-arviz-by-agustina-arroyuelo/5981)
**Author:** [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\ **Replies:** 1\ **Last updated:** [October 29, 2020, 9:39am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/studying-glycan-3d-structures-with-pymc3-and-arviz-by-agustina-arroyuelo/5981 "2020-10-29T09:39:12Z")
Talk Abstract Interest for circular variables is present across a very diverse array of applied fields, from social and political sciences to geology and biology. They are very useful for the statistical modelling of, ti… [Next page](https://discourse.pymc.io/c/events/2020talks/15.md?page=1)