Bayesian model averaging: ranking of model weights and LOO don't match

Questions
5

I’m not sure I’m following you :thinking:

  • From what I see, only two of your models have a substantial weight: Decay only and Full
  • If I’m not mistaken, on the log scale, the higher the LOO, the better. So, based on LOO, the best model would be Full, followed by Decay only, right?
  • Which means that Full should have the most weight, and Decay Full should follow. This seems to be the case, isn’t it? 0.79 for Full, and 0.13 for Decay only.

So, I’m not seeing any mismatch here – am I missing something (which is clearly possible: I’m no IC expert!)?