Bug or not: BEST Notebook: Difference of means of posterior probability in plot vs. text

,

This is not a bug.

The explanation is given in the (annotated) paragraph:

For these comparisons, it is useful to use zero as a reference value (ref_val); providing this reference value [i.e. 0] yields cumulative probabilities [as in cdf] for the posterior distribution on either side of the value [i.e. vertical line at ref_val=0]. Thus, for the difference in means, 99.4% of the posterior probability is greater than zero…

In other words, 99.4% == values to the right of vertical line - values to the left.