Getting started with Bayesian: expected values

[drbenvincent]

Hi @IanW. If this is one of your first models, then I’d recommend starting off with the “time series as regression” type approach. The chapter in Martin, Kumar & Lao is great on this: 6. Time Series — Bayesian Modeling and Computation in Python. But essentially you ignore the temporal ordering of observations and just model your outcomes as some linear combination of predictors. You could have categorical predictors, such as airlines or airport or whatever. You could also have dummy variables that indicate holiday periods. There are lots of ways to then embellish this model so the approach can become half decent. It could be worth thinking about if you didn’t want to dive into actual time series modeling at this point.