How to verify that uncertainty (estimated from pymc3) is accurate?

Questions
27

@gbernstein,

image
image.png949×672 29.4 KB

  1. Do you know how or is there any python function that can calculate and plot the “gray band” as seen in Figure 1 and 2 and panel (a) above?
  2. Similarly, do you know how to plot the panel (b) and ©? what are “gray band” in the panel b and c? What is the “red line” in the panel c.
  3. I think this is a trivial question but from your experience, what is the “optimal” number of bins to plot if I have a round 1000 samples? How do you choose number of bins given certain number of samples.

Thanks a lot for your help, I really appreciate that!