Is there any supply chain, “what if” tools built around pymc?

Yes it can help with that. This was the exact use case I had for building SpaceX rockets where each node was an assembly procured either from a supplier or built in house.

You can estimate the lead times for each node, then use posterior predictive sampling to assess the duration of the entire network cumulatively. There are some assumptions like independence etc but it sounds like your situation this isn’t too bad of an assumption.

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