# Learning Bayesian Statistics With Pokemon GO by Tushar Chandra

**URL:** <https://discourse.pymc.io/t/learning-bayesian-statistics-with-pokemon-go-by-tushar-chandra/6020>\
**Category:** PyMCon2020\
**Created:** [October 17, 2020, 6:44pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/learning-bayesian-statistics-with-pokemon-go-by-tushar-chandra/6020 "2020-10-17T18:44:59Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 8\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![pymc\_devs\_bot](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/pymc_devs_bot/32/299_2.png) [@pymc\_devs\_bot](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/pymc_devs_bot)\
**Post date:** [October 17, 2020, 6:44pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/learning-bayesian-statistics-with-pokemon-go-by-tushar-chandra/6020/1 "2020-10-17T18:44:59Z")

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# Talk Abstract

In the mobile game Pokemon GO, players can rarely encounter “shiny” Pokemon. The exact appearance rates are unknown. But by using Bayesian inference and PyMC3, we can model different species’ shiny rates. In this beginner-level tutorial, we will introduce fundamental principles at the heart of Bayesian modeling; then we will apply them to develop PyMC3 models that can answer questions about Pokemon GO.

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| Tushar Chandra | [Twitter `@threeshar`](https://twitter.com/threeshar) | [GitHub `tuchandra`](https://github.com/tuchandra) | [Personal website](https://tusharc.dev/) |

# Talk

[![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/v0PiWcnEpiw/maxresdefault.jpg "Learning Bayesian Statistics With Pokemon GO (Tushar Chandra)") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0PiWcnEpiw)

## Tushar Chandra

Tushar is a senior data scientist at Nielsen Global Media in Chicago. At Nielsen, he works on developing Bayesian models for next-generation audience measurement. He loves cats (living with two, Luna and Ruby), chai, and college football. This is his first conference talk!

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This is a [PyMCon 2020](https://pymc-devs.github.io/pymcon//) talk

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![tushar\_chandra](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/tushar_chandra/32/2547_2.png) [@tushar\_chandra](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/tushar_chandra)\
**Post date:** [October 23, 2020, 3:40pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/learning-bayesian-statistics-with-pokemon-go-by-tushar-chandra/6020/2 "2020-10-23T15:40:42Z")

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Looking forward to answering your questions about this! Some resources:

- [Slide deck](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1bvSrNqPjMwqISJWPYz8bgPIxvk0oU-1H26sxtmaOir4/edit#slide=id.p)
- [Code](https://github.com/tuchandra/pymcon2020_talk) (cleaned up from the live versions!)

I also put together some [Resources to learn about Bayesian inference](https://tusharc.dev/posts/bayesian_resources.html) as I was learning for the first time, and brought it back and updated it for this talk. Let me know if you find it useful!

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**Author:** ![michaelosthege](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/michaelosthege/32/371_2.png) [@michaelosthege](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/michaelosthege)\
**Post date:** [October 25, 2020, 1:32pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/learning-bayesian-statistics-with-pokemon-go-by-tushar-chandra/6020/3 "2020-10-25T13:32:37Z")

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Really good talk!  
One note about divergences: only HMC/NUTS can detect/report when they diverge, so that’s why you didn’t get divergences with `Slice`. The traces look fine though 👍

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**Author:** ![tushar\_chandra](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/tushar_chandra/32/2547_2.png) [@tushar\_chandra](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/tushar_chandra)\
**Post date:** [October 25, 2020, 4:47pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/learning-bayesian-statistics-with-pokemon-go-by-tushar-chandra/6020/4 "2020-10-25T16:47:07Z")

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Thanks for the note! The `Slice` sampler was added at the last minute when I was like ah, oh no, why is this model not working, so I appreciate the insight into the details! 🙂

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**Author:** ![JamesCreasey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b4bc9f/32.png) [@JamesCreasey](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/JamesCreasey)\
**Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 9:34pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/learning-bayesian-statistics-with-pokemon-go-by-tushar-chandra/6020/5 "2020-10-29T21:34:56Z")

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Thank you for the talk - really enjoyed it. Accessible for a complete beginner.

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**Author:** ![junpenglao](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/junpenglao/32/8_2.png) [@junpenglao](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/junpenglao)\
**Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 2:01pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/learning-bayesian-statistics-with-pokemon-go-by-tushar-chandra/6020/6 "2020-10-30T14:01:45Z")

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Really cool talk +1, also I love the live coding feel to it

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**Author:** ![SeoyoungSkyeKim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f9ae1b/32.png) [@SeoyoungSkyeKim](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/SeoyoungSkyeKim)\
**Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 5:52pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/learning-bayesian-statistics-with-pokemon-go-by-tushar-chandra/6020/7 "2020-11-02T17:52:01Z")

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Amazing talk! Love the live coding and intuitive explanations.

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**Author:** ![tushar\_chandra](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/tushar_chandra/32/2547_2.png) [@tushar\_chandra](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/tushar_chandra)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 2:36pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/learning-bayesian-statistics-with-pokemon-go-by-tushar-chandra/6020/8 "2020-11-03T14:36:24Z")

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Thank you all! I appreciate it, I’m glad you liked the talk 🙂