Yeah I think so. Also could be more complex.
### mu ARR
mu_ARR = pm.Deterministic('mu_ARR', beta_IAR[year_index_obs] + gamma_IAR[cell_index_obs] + \
phi_IAR[cell_index_obs] * sigma_phi_IAR)
sigma_ARR = pm.HalfNormal('sigma_ARR', sigma=100)
### ARR
ARR = pm.Normal('ARR', mu=mu_ARR, sigma=sigma_ARR) ## Actually ARRij
The ARR is a combination of year effect and cell effect (spatial effect). I think I can remove the beta_IAR to get a mean_ARR across year, and then expand it into the full size by adding the year effect.