Hi everyone, question updated: I am new to pymc3 and trying to understand the inner workings on an example of linear regression: with pm.Model() as m_5_1: marriage_age_s = pm.Data("marriage_age_s", df['MedianAgeMarriage_s'].values) divorce_rate_s = pm.Data("divorce_rate_s", df['Divorce_s…

Welcome! The observed divorce_rate_hat, despite being centered at mu, is distributed around mu with sd=sigma. Your calculation of mu_pred recreates the “best fitting regression line” (e.g., mu) but doesn’t incorporate sigma whereas the posterior predictions do. To recreate the posterior predictio…

Mean of mu and mean of predictive posterior distribution

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FHTE December 11, 2021, 12:27pm 3

Thank you very much for the detailed explanation!

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Mean of mu and mean of predictive posterior distribution

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