I am a learner, and trying to analyze astronomical observations/data-set from the High Energy Stereoscopic System - H.E.S.S… i wish to use PyMC or the Bayesian method to do a time dependent analysis to find flares or peaks in a set of counts-images (and to search for emissions at specific times, if any).
I need help with how to build such a model using PyMC. While studying the Bayes method I got the idea of using the procedure stated below, for which I am very uncertain about the approach and need guidance/help.
by: specifying all probability distributions (i.e. model specification
and defining both stochastic and deterministic variables), fitting the model
and model checking.
again, I am uncertain about how to apply this correctly.
Your guidance/input will be highly appreciated. Thank you