Modelling a timeseries of cumulative maximum

Questions
12

Wait! I mixed up the clauses in the switch.

Here is the fixed code (plus some other small bug fixes)

# Sample parameters
N = 100
mu = 10.
sigma = 1.0

# Sample generation
ts = np.arange(N)
obss = []
obs = -math.inf
for t in ts:
  aux = mu + sigma*np.random.randn()
  obs = np.max([obs, aux])
  obss.append(obs)
obss = np.array(obss)

# PyMC3 model
def logp(os, mu, sigma, epsilon = 0.00001):
  x_dist = pm.Normal.dist(mu=mu, sigma=sigma)

  log_likelihood= pm.math.constant(0.)
  o_n_minus_1 = pm.math.constant(-np.math.inf)
  eps = pm.math.constant(epsilon)
  for o_n in os:
    log_likelihood += \
      pm.math.switch(pm.math.lt(pm.math.abs_(o_n - o_n_minus_1), eps), 
                    x_dist.logcdf(o_n),
                    x_dist.logp(o_n),
      )
    o_n_minus_1 = o_n
  
  return log_likelihood

with pm.Model() as model:
  mu = pm.Uniform('mu', 0., 20.)
  sigma = pm.Uniform('sigma', 0.5, 1.5)
  Ys = pm.DensityDist('Ys', logp, observed = {'os':obss, 'mu': mu, 'sigma': sigma})
  trace = pm.sample(5000, return_inferencedata=True, idata_kwargs={"density_dist_obs": False})
  pm.plot_trace(trace, ['mu', 'sigma'])

image
image872×296 86.6 KB

Much better!

What do you think?

1 Like