Not necessarily, because the trend in each state is not only influenced by the fundamentals – it’s also influenced by the opinion trends in the 49 other states (through the hierarchical structure and the \delta_j coefficients).
You don’t see that for Florida because the national trend and the fundamentals agree, but Indiana is indeed a good illustration of that fact, as noted in the paper:
In Indiana, Obama was slightly ahead of the historical forecast, but this was atypical: in most states, as in Florida, fewer voters than expected were reporting a preference for Obama. As a result, estimates of \delta_j < 0; so after the final day of polling, \pi_{ij} trended upward to Election Day. […] In Indiana, \pi_{ij} moved away from the structural forecast, but again toward the actual outcome—thus correcting the substantial 5.5% error in the original Time-for-Change forecast.
Hope this helps, but again, don’t get hung up on that, you’ll get there eventually – lots of moving parts in this model, so it’s completely normal to get confused 