# Pymc and soccer sport betting: looking for "thinking & coding" buddy

**URL:** <https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymc-and-soccer-sport-betting-looking-for-thinking-coding-buddy/12729>\
**Category:** v5\
**Created:** [August 15, 2023, 10:22am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymc-and-soccer-sport-betting-looking-for-thinking-coding-buddy/12729 "2023-08-15T10:22:08Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 12\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![Gianpaolo\_Galli](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/gianpaolo_galli/32/5238_2.png) [@Gianpaolo\_Galli](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/Gianpaolo_Galli)\
**Post date:** [August 15, 2023, 10:22am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymc-and-soccer-sport-betting-looking-for-thinking-coding-buddy/12729/1 "2023-08-15T10:22:08Z")

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Ciao from Italy 🙂

I’m looking for a thinking & coding buddy with pymc in the field of soccer sport betting.

I’m a full time developer in IBM Iseries (aged 57) but I’d like to share my weekend project with someone interested in PYMC & sport betting.  
I’have tried with Stan and with Machine Learning and a lot of code in python has been developed (scraping e bets portfolio selection with cvxpy).

My objective:

1. learn better Bayesian data analysis with pymc (following Richard McElreath “Statistical Rethinking” book);
2. gain better coding habit in python (not the language in my daily coding activities);
3. gaining fresh idea and momentum;
4. maybe (!) gain money from the results of this effort.

Confidential information: all my previous attempts, in the long run,  
have produced less money (losses) ![🙁](https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/e/notoemoji/15.0/1f641/72.png) ![😀](https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/e/notoemoji/15.0/1f600/72.png)

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**Author:** ![ariels0016](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/94ad74/32.png) [@ariels0016](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/ariels0016)\
**Post date:** [August 15, 2023, 2:45pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymc-and-soccer-sport-betting-looking-for-thinking-coding-buddy/12729/2 "2023-08-15T14:45:36Z")

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Hi,

I’m also working on sports but I have not ventured into soccer. I’d be happy to collaborate if possible and discuss sports betting with you.

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**Author:** ![Gianpaolo\_Galli](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/gianpaolo_galli/32/5238_2.png) [@Gianpaolo\_Galli](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/Gianpaolo_Galli)\
**Post date:** [August 15, 2023, 3:45pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymc-and-soccer-sport-betting-looking-for-thinking-coding-buddy/12729/3 "2023-08-15T15:45:28Z")

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😀great. I Will message you. Thank you very much.  
Giàmpaolo

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**Author:** ![ariels0016](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/94ad74/32.png) [@ariels0016](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/ariels0016)\
**Post date:** [August 15, 2023, 4:38pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymc-and-soccer-sport-betting-looking-for-thinking-coding-buddy/12729/4 "2023-08-15T16:38:57Z")

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Okay sounds good🤝🏼

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**Author:** ![DanWeitzenfeld](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/danweitzenfeld/32/30_2.png) [@DanWeitzenfeld](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/DanWeitzenfeld)\
**Post date:** [August 16, 2023, 9:52pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymc-and-soccer-sport-betting-looking-for-thinking-coding-buddy/12729/5 "2023-08-16T21:52:41Z")

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You might find my blog post here interesting: [Accounting for Game Situation When Using xG to Evaluate Team Strength](http://danielweitzenfeld.github.io/passtheroc/posts/xg_and_game_sitch.html#)  
Using this model, I was breaking even in backtests in the Premier League. My next step was to evaluate different window lengths for form.  
But personally, I think a model-only approach won’t work in the big leagues. There is too much information that oddsmakers and other bettors have that either requires a significant investment of time to track (e.g. injuries) or is tough to quantify (the tendency of Tottenham (my favorite team) to find ways not to win).  
good luck!

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**Author:** ![Gianpaolo\_Galli](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/gianpaolo_galli/32/5238_2.png) [@Gianpaolo\_Galli](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/Gianpaolo_Galli)\
**Post date:** [August 17, 2023, 6:40am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymc-and-soccer-sport-betting-looking-for-thinking-coding-buddy/12729/6 "2023-08-17T06:40:19Z")

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Hi @DanWeitzenfeld,

I am studying your post; it is very interesting.

Ok on misalignment of information between me and bookmaker, they know the “wisdom of the crowd”.

I have two questions for you:

1. in his first video ([L1: Introduction (State of Bayes Lecture Series](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4y2UfU-2cs&t=598s))), Maxim Kochurov (@ferrine) says that Bayes model is the best if your objective is different from “fit-predict” mantra of machine learning. Maybe machine learning models are better for sport prediction than bayesian model? But machine learning models can produce well calibrated probabilities?

2. even if I can arrive at the perfect bayesian model, will bookmaker let me run free in sport betting or it will be much probable that they will ban me?

Ciao from Italy: forza Milan ![AC-Milan-icon](https://canada1.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/uploads/pymc3/original/2X/4/490d63db496a4a3808ff47c32ad88eca5bf4338c.png) 😀

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**Author:** ![porterhouse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/cc9497/32.png) [@porterhouse](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/porterhouse)\
**Post date:** [March 18, 2025, 5:43am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymc-and-soccer-sport-betting-looking-for-thinking-coding-buddy/12729/7 "2025-03-18T05:43:42Z")

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@Gianpaolo_Galli Hey! I have also began to look at pymc soccer team strength modelling. How far did you get in your journey? I have managed to create a decent Dixon Coles model with time decay applied, but struggling to now implement xG as well as goals and also league hierarchy effects.

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**Author:** ![Gianpaolo\_Galli](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/gianpaolo_galli/32/5238_2.png) [@Gianpaolo\_Galli](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/Gianpaolo_Galli)\
**Post date:** [March 18, 2025, 6:05am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymc-and-soccer-sport-betting-looking-for-thinking-coding-buddy/12729/8 "2025-03-18T06:05:16Z")

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@porterhouse Hi, not far away. Almost stopped 🙄  
Lost momentum. Sorry.

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**Author:** ![porterhouse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/cc9497/32.png) [@porterhouse](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/porterhouse)\
**Post date:** [March 19, 2025, 5:22am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymc-and-soccer-sport-betting-looking-for-thinking-coding-buddy/12729/9 "2025-03-19T05:22:10Z")

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@Gianpaolo_Galli What sort of model structure did you go for?

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**Author:** ![Gianpaolo\_Galli](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/gianpaolo_galli/32/5238_2.png) [@Gianpaolo\_Galli](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/Gianpaolo_Galli)\
**Post date:** [March 19, 2025, 5:59am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymc-and-soccer-sport-betting-looking-for-thinking-coding-buddy/12729/10 "2025-03-19T05:59:07Z")

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Baio Blanciardo: [Bayesian hierarchical model for the prediction of football results - UCL Discovery](https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/16040/)

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**Author:** ![porterhouse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/cc9497/32.png) [@porterhouse](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/porterhouse)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2025, 5:39am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymc-and-soccer-sport-betting-looking-for-thinking-coding-buddy/12729/11 "2025-03-20T05:39:42Z")

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Thank you, did you ever explore adding xG?

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**Author:** ![Gianpaolo\_Galli](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/gianpaolo_galli/32/5238_2.png) [@Gianpaolo\_Galli](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/Gianpaolo_Galli)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2025, 9:13am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymc-and-soccer-sport-betting-looking-for-thinking-coding-buddy/12729/12 "2025-03-20T09:13:59Z")

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No, I didn’t It.