You might find my blog post here interesting: Accounting for Game Situation When Using xG to Evaluate Team Strength
Using this model, I was breaking even in backtests in the Premier League. My next step was to evaluate different window lengths for form.
But personally, I think a model-only approach won’t work in the big leagues. There is too much information that oddsmakers and other bettors have that either requires a significant investment of time to track (e.g. injuries) or is tough to quantify (the tendency of Tottenham (my favorite team) to find ways not to win).
good luck!
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