Hi @DanWeitzenfeld,
I am studying your post; it is very interesting.
Ok on misalignment of information between me and bookmaker, they know the “wisdom of the crowd”.
I have two questions for you:
-
in his first video (L1: Introduction (State of Bayes Lecture Series)), Maxim Kochurov (@ferrine) says that Bayes model is the best if your objective is different from “fit-predict” mantra of machine learning. Maybe machine learning models are better for sport prediction than bayesian model? But machine learning models can produce well calibrated probabilities?
-
even if I can arrive at the perfect bayesian model, will bookmaker let me run free in sport betting or it will be much probable that they will ban me?
Ciao from Italy: forza Milan 
