# \[PyMCon Web Series 08\] A Soccer-Factor-Model to Decipher a Soccer-Player's Inherent Skill (July 17, 2023) (Maximilian Goebel)

**URL:** <https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymcon-web-series-08-a-soccer-factor-model-to-decipher-a-soccer-players-inherent-skill-july-17-2023-maximilian-goebel/12453>\
**Category:** PyMCon Web Series\
**Created:** [July 6, 2023, 11:55am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymcon-web-series-08-a-soccer-factor-model-to-decipher-a-soccer-players-inherent-skill-july-17-2023-maximilian-goebel/12453 "2023-07-06T11:55:00Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 9\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![purna135](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/purna135/32/4895_2.png) [@purna135](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/purna135)\
**Post date:** [July 6, 2023, 11:55am UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymcon-web-series-08-a-soccer-factor-model-to-decipher-a-soccer-players-inherent-skill-july-17-2023-maximilian-goebel/12453/1 "2023-07-06T11:55:00Z")

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![PyMCon Web Series - A Soccer-Factor-Model to Decipher a Soccer-Player's Inherent Skill](https://canada1.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/uploads/pymc3/original/2X/2/24121c48a81099484c5296b70586e59753483c62.png)

Welcome to the 8th event of the PyMCon Web Series!

**Speaker:** [Maximilian Goebel](https://www.maximiliangoebel.com), a Post-Doc in Finance/Economics at Bocconi University  
**Event type:** Live Talk  
**Date:** 2023-07-17T14:00:00Z ([subscribe here](https://dashboard.mailerlite.com/forms/241188/73241617305175542/share) for email updates)  
**Time:** 2 pm UTC / 7 am PT / 10 am ET / 4 pm Berlin  
**Register for the event:** [Meetup event](https://www.meetup.com/pymc-online-meetup/events/294637955/) (to get the Zoom link)  
**Website:** [PyMCon Events · PyMCon Web Series](https://pymcon.com/events/)

## Abstract of the Talk:

Inspired by the asset-pricing literature, the Soccer-Factor-Model (SFM) is an attempt to determine a soccer player’s “alpha”, i.e. his/her inherent skill. In this application, “skill” is defined as a player’s probability to score a goal after accounting for factors that are actually to be attributed to his team’s out- or under-performance vis-à-vis the opponent. In that sense, the SFM tries to answer the question, whether a player’s observed goals are an over- or understatement of his “true” skill/ability.

## Content:

**Max’s Interview:**

[![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/IkVoZUfCkt4/maxresdefault.jpg "PyMCon Web Series - Meet Maximilian Goebel") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkVoZUfCkt4)

**Live Talk:**

[![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/2dGrN8JGd_w/maxresdefault.jpg "PyMCon Web Series | A Soccer-Factor-Model | Maximilian Goebel") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dGrN8JGd_w)

**Notebook:**

> <https://github.com/maxi-tb22/SFM/blob/main/PyMCon/SFM_redacted.ipynb>

## About the Speaker:

**Maximilian Goebel**

> Max is a Post-Doc at Università Bocconi, specializing in finance/economics. With research interests in climate econometrics, machine learning, macroeconomic forecasting, and asset-pricing, Max combines expertise in these areas to drive innovation and uncover valuable insights.

### Connect with Max:

**Website:**

> **[Maximilian Göbel](https://www.maximiliangoebel.com)**
>
> Hi, I'm Max! 
> I'm a Machine Learning Engineer,
> and a former Post-Doc in Finance/Economics at Università Bocconi.

**LinkedIn:** [https://www.linkedin.com/in/maximilian-göbel-188b0413a/](https://www.linkedin.com/in/maximilian-g%C3%B6bel-188b0413a/)

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We thank our [sponsors](https://pymcon.com/sponsors/) for supporting PyMC and the PyMCon Web Series. If you would like to sponsor us, [contact us](https://pymcon.com/contact/) for more information.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![purna135](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/purna135/32/4895_2.png) [@purna135](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/purna135)\
**Post date:** [July 9, 2023, 2:22pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymcon-web-series-08-a-soccer-factor-model-to-decipher-a-soccer-players-inherent-skill-july-17-2023-maximilian-goebel/12453/2 "2023-07-09T14:22:09Z")

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**Author:** ![tjburch](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/tjburch/32/3173_2.png) [@tjburch](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/tjburch)\
**Post date:** [July 17, 2023, 2:04pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymcon-web-series-08-a-soccer-factor-model-to-decipher-a-soccer-players-inherent-skill-july-17-2023-maximilian-goebel/12453/3 "2023-07-17T14:04:38Z")

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FYI @RavinKumar, in case you see this during the talk, the Zoom chat is disabled.

edit: no longer disabled after the link was sent at 10:04.

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**Author:** ![tjburch](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/tjburch/32/3173_2.png) [@tjburch](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/tjburch)\
**Post date:** [July 17, 2023, 2:34pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymcon-web-series-08-a-soccer-factor-model-to-decipher-a-soccer-players-inherent-skill-july-17-2023-maximilian-goebel/12453/4 "2023-07-17T14:34:12Z")

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The motivating idea behind your features basically seems to be establishing the goal scoring with/without a given player - effectively using the time with them not on the field as a “control” and with them on the field as a “treatment”. If that’s correct, does this implicitly assumes a defensive team will respond the same way agnostic of who is on the field? Is there a good way to consider a change in the defensive behavior when a certain player is on the field? I could see this being the case for a superstar, for example. Or do you think that information is contained in the scoring difference?

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**Author:** ![mcanearm](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/mcanearm/32/6882_2.png) [@mcanearm](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/mcanearm)\
**Post date:** [July 17, 2023, 2:49pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymcon-web-series-08-a-soccer-factor-model-to-decipher-a-soccer-players-inherent-skill-july-17-2023-maximilian-goebel/12453/5 "2023-07-17T14:49:17Z")

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How would you control for skill over time? Basically, estimating the “aging curve” of a player?

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**Author:** ![wdeanHPA](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/wdeanhpa/32/8192_2.png) [@wdeanHPA](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/wdeanHPA)\
**Post date:** [July 17, 2023, 2:54pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymcon-web-series-08-a-soccer-factor-model-to-decipher-a-soccer-players-inherent-skill-july-17-2023-maximilian-goebel/12453/6 "2023-07-17T14:54:27Z")

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do the features and included rows account for when players are on the team but are not playing? For instance, a player on the bench would influence the probability of the _team_ scoring

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![tjburch](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/tjburch/32/3173_2.png) [@tjburch](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/tjburch)\
**Post date:** [July 17, 2023, 2:57pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymcon-web-series-08-a-soccer-factor-model-to-decipher-a-soccer-players-inherent-skill-july-17-2023-maximilian-goebel/12453/7 "2023-07-17T14:57:05Z")

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Thanks for the response! Even the diff-in-diff idea is a good thought!

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**Author:** ![wdeanHPA](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/wdeanhpa/32/8192_2.png) [@wdeanHPA](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/wdeanHPA)\
**Post date:** [July 17, 2023, 2:59pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymcon-web-series-08-a-soccer-factor-model-to-decipher-a-soccer-players-inherent-skill-july-17-2023-maximilian-goebel/12453/8 "2023-07-17T14:59:31Z")

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seems related to the questions above with “superstars”

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![purna135](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/discourse.pymc.io/purna135/32/4895_2.png) [@purna135](https://discourse.pymc.io/u/purna135)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2023, 5:53pm UTC](https://discourse.pymc.io/t/pymcon-web-series-08-a-soccer-factor-model-to-decipher-a-soccer-players-inherent-skill-july-17-2023-maximilian-goebel/12453/9 "2023-07-18T17:53:18Z")

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In case you missed the live session, the video has been posted to YouTube.

Watch the recording here:

[![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/2dGrN8JGd_w/maxresdefault.jpg "PyMCon Web Series | A Soccer-Factor-Model | Maximilian Goebel") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dGrN8JGd_w)