Hi @bernardocaldas, interesting work thank you for tagging me. In my model I didn’t include fundamentals like unemployment, I just didn’t have enough historical data to say what effect they had and I assumed there would be a pass through into polling anyways. An example in this electoral cycle was that FiveThirtyEight and other models were relying on assuming a reversion to fundamentals, so showed Biden with a wide lead until June. When I made my model I was shocked to discover just how far behind Trump he was. The problem with assuming a reversion to fundamentals over time is that 1. you don’t know that the polls will converge to what you think they will and 2. there just isn’t evidence that there is such a convergence. It’s better to let the model show the uncertainty then to stack the deck for an economics or incumbency based result.
Andrew
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