Unexpected results of hierarchical model for prediction of election results

For the prediction to work, you need to formula the election result as some kind of function of the prediction from the experts. It might sound a bit weird, but think of it as forecasting. Otherwise, what you are doing now is basically sampling from the prior Beta(1., 1.) Because of the inefficiency of Metropolis, the sampler will stuck quite a lot which gives you lots of either 0 or 1.