Is it wrong to expect this very simple model gives me a joint distribution like a line for the posterior? What I get is actually my prior. import numpy as np import pymc3 as pm import theano import matplotlib.pyplot as plt #%% y=4 y_er=.1 y_observed=y_er*np.random.randn(5)+y #%% with pm.Model() as …

It seems to me you are sampling from the prior, because you are defining the step before defining the likelihood, if you write: obs = pm.Normal('obs', yhat, sigma,observed=y_observed) step=pm.NUTS() you will get the correct result. BTW, you can just let PyMC3 choose the step for you by ju…

Unexpected results

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madarshahian February 15, 2019, 3:53pm 3

Good catch! What a typo! Thank you Osvaldo!

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Unexpected results

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