I am new to the pymc and thinking with probabilities.
I have checked out a few of the basic hierarchical pooling tutorials: radon and rugby.
I am interested in understanding the extended hierarchical pooling found in where they “move up” in the level.
In this example, after they have modeled the “floor” by “county” relationship, they move on to take into account a “country” level in the example.
I am however interested in a more “sibling approach”. For instance, I surmise (and pretend I have data for the following).
- Rainfall by county. I believe that rainfall can “wash away” radon in the ground as it trickles through.
While, we could say that this is just an input variable into the Normal distribution, I wish for the relationship between amount of Rainfall and radon to be variable by county, related, but can fluctuate.
In the physical world, I would explain that by saying, the effects of rainwater in loose-soil vs solid granite is different, but would still expect that 5 inches of rain per week to have more of an effect than 1 inches of rain per week.
How can I modify the existing radon example to incorporate such "county level " if I only want to include this type of rainfall data?
Am I even asking the question correctly?
– btw I cannot add soil type as an input, because I don’t have it…which is why I want to let it find it’s own loosely related values.