Hi all! Just a short post to share the probabilistic forecast of European elections in France I just published on my website (sorry it’s all in French for now, but the graphs are universal ): https://www.pollsposition.com/indicateurs/forecast_europeennes2019
I did all that with python (the website is actually a Pyramid web app) and PyMC3, and I had a lot of fun doing it!
So I thought it could be of interest to some of you, and I wanted to say a huge thanks to all the PyMC devs, in particular @junpenglao, Austin Rochford and @aloctavodia, whose work / books were of great help
I owe you guys a drink when you come to Paris
Hope you’ll enjoy it, and don’t hesitate to drop me a line - feedback or contributions of course more than welcome
Oh that’s awesome! Anyway you can share your model (maybe the
__repr__ output from your model set up)?
What do you mean by the
To be honest, I don’t think the code is clean enough to share it yet It’s definitely something I have in mind and wanna work on, but I’m lacking time right now (I’m actually working on a second model: trying to see what we can do with a group-level model )
if you do
name_of_model in a jupyter notebook it should print a latex formatted model - that’s what I meant
Ha ha ok! I forgot about this functionality! So I’ll do that this week
I’m a big fan of the
model_to_graphviz method too
As promised, here is the model’s
__repr__ @junpenglao !
As you can see, the model is quite complicated, so the picture is not very clear
But tell me if you have any question
Any reason why you are using a Uniform prior in this specific range?
Yeah: it’s the cross-validated error of French pollsters, calibrated to get the results right 5 in 6 times (83%). In other words, based on historic patterns, there is a 5 in 6 chance that the polling error’s magnitude will go as far as 3.1 points (while being unbiased)
Hi again! To answer non-French speakers’ demands, I did an English version of the forecast : https://www.pollsposition.com/indicateurs/european_elections_france2019
(I’m actually using a sweet python package to help me started on the translation with Google trad )
Any feedback welcome, and take care!