Hi!

I am fairly new to Bayes.

But I have a challenging dataset that looks perfect for Bayesian statistics.

I have two medical tests, that are performed in sequential order. Test A gives a certain probability of a binary outcome, and then Test B provides better insight into assumptions of Test A. Test B returns an ordinary/multiclass categorical variable as result.

Ground truth was then verified by Test C, only available *post-mortem*.

Therefore the goal is to model two probability distributions:

- Probability after Test A, in case a physician doesnâ€™t have access to Test B and canâ€™t perform it on the patient immediately.
- Updated probability after Test B.

Schematic to simplify my reasoning!

Would be grateful for any tips, references on how to approach it. It was challenging to find anything similar in the literature.

Cheers!