I am an undergrad student, and a complete beginner to probabilistic programming in general, so I am having some problems.
For the purpose of my dissertation project, I need to evaluate the efficacy of a certain vaccine against Covid-19 using Bayesian methods. As it turns out, my population parameter (infection process, i.e., number of people infected) follows a Poisson prior, and the mean of this prior, Lambda follows a gamma distribution. The likelihood turns out to be a binomial distribution.
At the present i am trying to model the posterior distribution of Lambda. The vaccine efficacy is a function of Lambda.
Can somebody guide me as to how I can create a model in PyMC3 for this?
As an added layer of complexity, I actually have two infection processes, one for the vaccine cohort and another for the control cohort. Can I get some hint as to how to proceed for this as well?
Thank you for patiently reading and answering!!