Hi everyone,

I understood that curve fitting using PYMC3 can provide model uncertainty, however, how do I verify that the uncertainty given by pymc3 is correct or not? Are there any examples or studies, which demonstrate that uncertainty estimated by pymc3 is accurate?

I have compared pymc3 linear regression vs. a non-linear least squared fit from scipy and the results are shown below

Parameters (slope and intercept) are almost identical. scipy fit can also provide one standard deviation errors on the parameters, which are also similar to uncertainties estimated from pymc3. See the image below:

Note that, pymc3 took almost 4 minutes while scipy only took 2 ms. I thought the only reason I would use pymc3 if it could provide more accurate uncertainty but I havenāt found any rigorous study showing how accurate pymc3ās uncertainty measure is. Any suggestions would be really appreciated.

Thanks,